Throughout history many wars have passed through Ukraine as various empires have fought over control of the land, and the people of Ukraine have always suffered because of it. Over the last couple of weeks another battle has been going on between competing interests, and this time Ukraine has all the power, literally! Energy, and particularly gas, is big news in Europe these days, and Ukraine has found itself centre-stage. When Russia cut off the supply for 24 hours last winter it sent a warning signal to the world, and suddenly politicians realised what business has always known: Ukraine plays a very important role in gas supplies to Europe. And with Black Sea exploration and possible new pipelines also making news, Ukraine suddenly found itself being courted by EU member states. In response, Russia proposed a deal where it would share control in the Ukrainian state-owned pipeline company in return for access to Russian gas fields. Interestingly, on 6 February the Verkhovna Rada voted with a landslide majority for a new law that made any such deal illegal. Energy expert and EU adviser Juris Ozolins knows just how important Ukraine is these days, and how the government could capitalise on its new found influence.

Hailing from Latvia, EU Energy expert Juris Ozolins knows all there is to know about the gas issue. Currently in Kyiv as part of the UEPLAC (Ukrainian-European Policy and Advice Centre) team, Juris works as an adviser to the Ukrainian government on Energy, Environment, Transportation and Communications. He knows just how important Ukraine is to the EU, and why. Last year, Russia may well have been playing a political game with Ukraine when it turned off the gas supply, but the effects were felt right across Europe. It highlighted the EU’s dependence on gas from Russia, and therefore the main supply route which runs through Ukraine. New pipelines such as the trans-Caspian Nabucco project which will pump natural gas from Central Asia to Europe bypassing Russia altogether are expected to include Ukraine, and with massive deposits anticipated in the Black Sea the words ‘gas’ and ‘Ukraine’ have become almost synonymous in the minds of EU politicians. “What happened last year was like a bomb going off under the seats of European and US political leaders,’ Juris says. ‘Up until then gas in Europe was controlled by business with little or no government intervention. The EU had no single policy when it came to energy supplies. Politicians realised they had to get their act together and a commission was set up to look at the problem. The first report was issued on 10 January this year, and it has made everyone suddenly very interested in Ukraine, and the reason is gas!”

There is certainly much talk about a new EU-Ukraine agreement that will bring the two closer together, but at the same time Russian President Putin announced a deal that would give Ukraine access to gas fields in Russia and in return Gazprom, the Russian gas company, would get a stake in the Ukrainian pipeline company. As usual Yushchenko and Yanukovich were at odds, with Yushchenko denouncing the deal and Yanukovich all for it. But the debate didn’t last long as the issue was put to the vote on Tuesday 6 February when a law was passed that made it impossible for any foreign interests to have any share in the state-owned pipeline. The vote was virtually unanimous with 430 of the 450 MPs wanting no-one but Ukraine to control this major national resource. Pro-Russian Yanukovich was angered, saying that the law was nothing more than political gamesmanship. Working very closely with the government, Juris has his own views on which path the country will take. “From my observations the Ukrainian government is doing everything possible, taking every opportunity to meet with politicians from EU member states and attending every possible event,” he says. “Ukraine is performing well and doing its best, but reforms in both Ukraine and the EU are desperately needed. This ‘big bang’ of twelve new member states in such a short space of time is a lot to absorb. Ukraine must be realistic and not become nervous.”

 Yuris is not only involved in pan-European gas supplies, it is also part of his remit to look at the local situation. Throughout Eastern Europe there has been a move from political pricing of gas to commercial pricing, and this is certainly the reason the Russian company Gazprom is citing for the massive increases imposed upon Ukraine recently. ‘Socially, these new gas prices are going to have a huge impact on Ukrainians. If you look at Kyiv the cost of apartment rental and even basics like meat and milk are already much higher than in Poland and the Baltic States. Gas prices are an additional burden. The move from unusually low, highly-subsidised gas prices to market prices is a huge leap, and it needs investment and infrastructure. It will be very painful for Ukrainians. The UK is very far forward in this area, having the term ‘power poverty’ where people paying 15% or more of their income on fuel bills are highlighted and can be looked at. Continental Europe does not have this facility, and Ukraine has no way of monitoring which people are vulnerable, those who may be literally left out in the cold,” Juris says. Juris has only been in the country since last October, but he has been very impressed with what he as seen here. “Kyiv took me by surprise,” comments the expert. “This is a truly European city with great services and very kind people.” He also has a lot of praise for the people he works with in the Ukrainian government. “I like very much that people in government here like to do everything themselves rather than asking for specific assistance. Other countries have been pleading with the EU to do this and do that, but in Ukraine people like to get on with it, only asking for advice, not for the job to be done for them. To me this shows a strong feeling of independence, capability and self-confidence. Of course I hear a lot of moaning that Ukraine is divided, but every country is divided. Ukrainians need to set this aside and look for common ground. Then the people can move forward together.” When it comes to the divide which this recent battle for Ukraine’s future has highlighted once more, it is may not be as wide as people think. The landslide vote in the Verkhovna Rada has shown that on some issues the country is completely united. “The law is the law, and nothing can be done to alter the fact. Parliament realised the importance of this pipeline and knows it can’t be given up for access to gas fields in Siberia or anywhere else!” says Juris.

Neil Campbell